A briefing note by Dr Charles Tannock, Conservative Member of the European Parliament, has been leaked.
As I mentioned in this week’s column for The Commentator, I have had many debates with Dr Tannock in the various taverns of Brussels about whether UKIP are a) sane and b) a threat. From these I wold have assumed his opinion to be a resounding “NO!” and I was rather looking forward to debating with him about this very question at Tory conference before I had my pass denied at the last minute.
According to Charles: UKIP poses a direct threat to Conservative re-election prospects by splitting our (their) vote and allowing Labour to slip ahead in marginal seats.
He contines: UKIP probably lost us 20-30 seats at the last Genearl election…. In London th Euro election is probably going to be 0on the same day as the local elections and there is a danger of a “spill-over effect”, with UKIP losing us local seats, and potentially even control of some boroughs.
Charles notes that UKIP polling at even 8% could be critical to the Tories; good to see that leading Conservatives recognise that we will probably be polling far higher by the next GE.
Thanks for the boost Charles! We could have told the Tories this ourselves but always lovely to hear it coming from the inside.
It seems to me that the threat to the Conservative Party comes mainly from their having abandoned their opposition to socialism. While the EU did not figure high among factors of domestic politics and the New Labour boom ran its course UKIP appeared as little threat.
We shall see!